Ortiz Gutiérrez, Ricardo Andrés
Strategic analysis and optimization of bioethanol supply chains [Tesi di dottorato]

In modern times, the interest in renewable energy has been increasing considerably in response to the growing energy demand and to the simultaneous concern about global warming effects. The urgency of this issue is related to dissociation between the perspective of a steady growth in demand for fuel and its supply, which is projected to become ever more uncertain and expensive. The phenomenon of climate change is widely recognized as a consequence of the increased concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere caused by anthropogenic activity, and to which the transport sector is a significant contributor. Among biofuels, biomass-based ethanol has been in a leading position for substituting petroleum-based road-fuels. Even if its actual carbon footprint is still debated, it is generally acknowledged a reduction in net GHG emissions with respect to oil. The complexity of the context discussed previously, guides us to the transition towards a more sustainable transport system which requires the adoption of effective quantitative tools able to encompassing the problem to the whole production chain (supply chain), that may help defining a more comprehensive view of biofuels. In dealing with such problems involving high decisional level, the analytical modelling is recognized as the best optimization option, particularly in the initial phase of design of unknown infrastructures in order to cope with a comprehensive management of production systems taking into account all supply chain stages. Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) in particular, emerges as one of the most suitable tools in determining the optimal solutions of complex supply chain design problems where multiple alternatives are to be taken into account. In this sense, the multi-objective MILP (moMILP) enables simultaneous consideration of conflicting criteria (i.e., financial, environmental) to assist the decisions of interested parties on biofuels industry at strategic and tactical levels. Moreover, this complex analysis is addressed effectively by incorporating the principles of Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) within supply chain analysis techniques aiming at a quantitative assessment of the environmental burdens of each supply chain stage. Accordingly, the main purpose of the research presented in this Thesis is to cover this gap of knowledge in the literature. In the context of the development and adoption of bioenergy systems, the overall objective of this work is to provide quantitative and deterministic tools to analyze and optimize the supply chain as whole, to thereby identify the most suitable and feasible strategies for the development of future road transport systems. In this sense, the research design for this Thesis begins with the development and analysis of a multi-period moMILP modelling framework for the design and the optimization of bioethanol supply chain where economics and environmental sustainability (GHG emissions reductions potential) for first generation ethanol is addressed, considering possibilities of several technologies integration (including biogas production). Then, the analysis is focused on the general interactions of market policies under the European Emission Trading System in order to enhance the bioethanol market development trends to boost sustainable production of bioethanol. Next, a comprehensive modelling analysis to predict commodity price evolution dynamics and to extend the price forecasts to other goods related to bioethanol production is addressed. An assessment of the impact on the supply chain design of the recent proposed by the European Commission to amend the existing Directive in terms of accountability technique for biofuels is analyzed and discussed. Besides, multi-criteria decision making tools to support strategic design and planning on biofuel supply chains including several Game Theory features are evaluated. Finally to close up, the main achievements of the Thesis are exposed as well as the main shortfalls and possible future research lines are outlined. Models capabilities in steering decisions on investments for bioenergy systems are evaluated in addressing real world case studies referring to the emerging bioethanol production in Northern Italy.

In relazione con http://paduaresearch.cab.unipd.it/7795/
ING-IND/25 - Impianti chimici
ING-IND/09 - Sistemi per l'energia e l'ambiente

Tesi di dottorato. | Lingua: | Paese: | BID: TD16055042